Hurricane season begins June 1, and researchers at N.C. State University have released their annual forecast.
The 2020 Atlantic season, they say, will be active with 18 to 22 named storms, and three to five becoming major storms. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric science at N.C. State, said in the forecast that eight to 11 of the storms may grow strong enough to become hurricanes — the historical average is six.
The Atlantic basin includes all of the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast also predicts more activity than historically usual. The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project forecasts 16 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of which will be major.
A major hurricane is defined as reaching Category 3 or higher (115-plus mph winds) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
While the season begins June 1, it is not uncommon for named storms to come much sooner. Tropical Storm Arlene was in April 2017, Tropical Storm Alberto was in May 2018 and Subtropical Storm Andrea was in May 2019.
In the case of both forecasts, it should be noted there is no correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and landfall in the U.S. For example, 1992 produced just six named storms and one subtropical storm but Hurricane Andrew was Category 5 and crushed South Florida. And by contrast, 2010 had 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes but not one of them made landfall in the U.S.; a tropical storm was the only one to reach land.
The federal government through its National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also known as NOAA, usually releases its forecast in May.
Bladen County endured three hurricanes in 35 months over the last four hurricane seasons. In 2016, Matthew struck in October. Florence came 23 months later in 2018, and Dorian passed through last September.
According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, it takes 30 days from the date of purchase for a National Flood Insurance Program policy to take effect. Flooding is the most common natural disaster in the United States and often does not result in a federal disaster declaration when FEMA offers help.
More than 20 percent of flood claims come from areas outside high-risk flood zones.
When FEMA issues a home repair grant, it provides only the basic emergency assistance. It is not intended as full replacement, as would insurance. Flood insurance, however, covers more. After Florence, policyholders in North Carolina averaged $40,000 in payments.
The average cost for an NFIP policy, nationally, is about $700.
FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center can provide information on the risk of flooding. Other tips from FEMA include:
• Stay informed. Download an emergency weather app on your phone. Purchase a weather radio.
• Plan to evacuate. Know your community’s evacuation plan, evacuation routes and how to receive alerts.
• Build an emergency kit. Keep it ready at home, at work and in the car.
• Buy flood insurance. Most home insurance policies do not cover flooding. National Flood Insurance Program policies take 30 days from the date of purchase to go into effect. To learn more about protecting your home, go to floodsmart.gov on the internet.
• Protect your documents. Keep computers and important documents in a waterproof container. Remember to create password-protected digital copies.
• Protect your property. Move valuables to higher levels.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.